Greetings,

As I'm sure you all know, the fireworks competition of 2007 is set to start very soon, and it's therefore mandatory to monitor weather conditions to an optimal level as it is a decisive influential factor in both any fireworks display and general attendance.

I will be posting reports whenever I get the information and analyses, but if you choose to also provide updates, I highly recommend that you only post them when closer to the day of presentation rather than several days in advance since the prognostic forecasts are much less credible for a good percentage of the time.

Let's hope for a successful season without any interruptions with respect to the weather, so this way every competitor can give it their absolute best.

Edit: In other weather related news, I hope everyone has been enjoying the gorgeous sunny and hot weather for almost the past week. You can expect this to continue (with the slight risk of a non-severe t-storm) for a good while longer, for there is a persistent and blocked high pressure system keeping things so fair, delightful and Summer-like.

Regards,

Trav.

I begin to be afraid about the forecast for Wednesday. As time goes, it looks that the forecast becomes worse.

I suspect that we must be prepared for a warm and very humid night. Not the best condition to launch the firework season and to bring a large crowd to the show, especially since most have to work the next morning.

Fred

The latest forecast (15:45) from Environment Canada is looking somewhat better for Wednesday now - it looks like the rain will hold off until Thursday. Let's hope so!

Let's also hope that England, on the 27th, has better luck than they traditionally have!

Paul.

What is causing the possible rains on Wednesday and the equally possible severe thunderstorm development later today and this evening is a cold front that extends as far down South into the Texas/Mexico border, while it was responsible for much of the severe weather South of the border (no confirmed tornadoes as of yet, thankfully). The central air pressure within the low itself has been dropping, so this storm has actually been quite volatile in the last 24 hours and continues to be vehement as it tracks West/Northwest.

To the point, while it will be unsettled for most of Wednesday, there is the risk of consistent rain showers and lingering storms from the same associated cold front. However, there is a fair possibility that the front will be out of the area by the time the evening period is ready to commence. I suspect that most of the rain will fall during the day, but what we really need to pay close attention to is the actual speed of the front itself. The front is currently moving at its initial speed, but models also suggest that it could equally slow down. I'm going to have to pay closer attention to this, but EC is still reporting a more promising forecast while TWN is holding on to a 90% probability of precipitation, though only for the afternoon period (the evening forecast is yet to be released later today).

At this point in time, given the speed of the front, I anticipate that things will ease by tomorrow evening and push off towards the Maritime provinces. I don't believe that stagant humidity will be an issue (compared to what it will be today) because the cold front will clear it away and subsequently drop dewpoint values as it advances throughout today and Wednesday. As such, the air will be gradually replaced by much cooler and fresher air, though it's a shame that it will be cooler than normal following Wednesday, so best enjoy the heat today, guys, just in case.

*In the meantime, ahead and along the front, squall line thunderstorms will develop (some of which could be severe in nature) as they track West. Not to say that we will indeed witness a t-storm, but if they do occur, it's quite possible for them to reach severe criteria, so keep that in mind this afternoon into the evening hours.

I have a strong feeling that I'll be quite busy watching the weather much more today, both for the fireworks and seeing if storms will develop with the passage of this vigorous front.

And let's hope for the best with respect for the weather, especially since we don't want to start a fireworks season with rain.

Trav.

Hey guys,

I just looked at some later models this morning, and the front will move through quickly (it's showing signs of even speeding up later on), so we should be fine tomorrow evening and even now in the afternoon. At first, I found the forecasted rains on Wednesday a little strange because frontal systems usually advance quickly and depart fairly rapidly as well (unless it was influenced by blocking high pressure like we saw a few weeks ago), which is why I thought the forecast could also change for the better.

Though the air is still slightly unstable in the morning hours, nothing should be too much of concern following that period as the air behind the front is much more stable, cool and less humid. However, it might be necessary to bring a light jacket since it will be on the cool side as the sun sets and especially since the daytime high is only about 20-22 C. The winds themselves may cause a slight chilling as well.

In addition to looking out and tracking the storms this afternoon and tonight, I'm still waiting on the final data for the wind direction and speed for tomorrow evening, though I think it shouldn't be a problem. However, I'm confident to state that when the front finally comes through, we can expect the winds to eventually shift from the Southwest to the West and Northwest while I anticipate that they will be between 15-20 km/h tomorrow evening, which is very nice and ideal to clear the smoke away. Sky conditions are fair with variable clouds and perhaps some cloudy periods.

All in all, tomorrow's weather will make it seem like today's never happened.

Edit: You guys will notice the clouds appearing and swelling up in the next few hours into the afternoon; good indication of instability.

Trav.

As expected, we should be fine tomorrow evening with winds between 15-20 km/h from the West, and possibly blowing from the Northwest at times. The temperature should be between 19 to 21 Celsius as well, though it may be slightly warmer in the metropolitan area because of enhanced heat retention in the region at night.

*Oh yes, just to keep you updated, we are now currently out of the severe thunderstorm watch. However, at about 2:00 p.m this afternoon, there was some impressive lightning strikes that were visible from the West Island. I'm hoping you got to see the strikes from wherever you were as they were quite stunning; I was particularly fond of that one blood red serpent-shaped cloud-to-ground lightning that struck North of here. I did take some photos of the cloud formations during the storm I witnessed today, so I can always post them if any of you are interested.

Other than that, enjoy the fireworks tomorrow evening without having to worry about the weather. Again if you feel like it, you can keep a light sweater/light jacket handy if the breezes make things a little cool for you.

Trav.

Good evening,

Similarly to the weather scenario we experienced last week, a cold front will yet again be slicing through the hot and humid air mass we started experiencing somewhat today and will feel even more tomorrow and on Wednesday. What differentiates this week's situation is that the front will be coming throughout the day on Wednesday rather than before hand, so the risk of thunderstorms (possibly the potential of turning severe) will exist.

What we don't know as of yet is what the conditions will be like in the evening hours (I have to track the speed and position of the front before I draw conclusions). I suspect that the risk will still exist in the evening hours, but because of the loss of daytime heating, storm development will have less of a chance to become intense, though still very much possible if conditions are right.

In any case, sadly (if you're a fan of the heat), once that front comes through, it will flush out the heat and humidity by Thursday and especially into Friday. But in its wake, it will sporadically unleash thunderstorms, and hence the risk in Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec.

So enjoy the heat until then! Tomorrow is the hotttest day and is forecasted to reach a high of 32-34 C with humidex values surpassing 40 C!

*In other news, I've been monitoring the weather in Western Canada, in particular, because they've been witnessing severe weather for almost the past 2 weeks. As I'm sure you already know by now, there have been devastating tornado touchdowns (F3s and F4s even). The hardest hit locality was Elie, Manitoba with the infamous F4, but thankfully, there were no fatalities and no major injuries, which is exceedingly rare with tornadoes of this magnitude. 8-10 tornadoes were reported and confirmed since Friday.

It goes to show that the U.S is not the only country to see strong tornadic activity!

Trav.

Good evening,

I'm concerned about the weather conditions tomorrow evening. The cold front, which is presently now a pair of cold fronts, will be on our doorstep tomorrow evening and the risk/potential of severe thunderstorms will certainly exist from the afternoon into the evening hours. In addition, ahead of the front in the early afternoon, heavy t-storms are also quite possible to develop. Regardless of the possible severity, it's not out of the question that rains and thunderstorms will threaten Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec for most of this time.

I've been monitoring the positions and relative speeds of the fronts for some time and according to several models, they will be affecting many regions in the late afternoon hours as well as the evening. By the overnight hours, the risk of severe weather will obviously subside, but there will be a continued chance of lingering showers and the risk of non-severe t-storms. In the early afternoon, ahead of the front, heavy t-storms are also quite possible to form.

I'd also like to point out that there will be plenty of humidity lingering throughout the night (humidex around a sticky 38 C) until that front completely sweeps out the heat and humidity by Thursday. If assuming that no rain falls, smoke build up should not be a problem because we have moderate winds still coming from the Southwest at 20-30 km/h.

Regardless of whatever the chance may be at the last minute, I'd very much advise everyone to bring their umbrellas and to keep the radios handy to listen in for further updates. It's all a matter of whether or not it rains/thunders at 10:00 p.m because precipitation associated with cold fronts, particularly t-storms, have random behavior in terms of development and thus not everywhere will necessarily see storms (you either get them, or you don't), so let's hope that we are spared at 10:00 p.m.

In all, be prepared for another extremely hot day with humidex values in the 40s while temperatures remain between 32 to as much as 35 C tomorrow (my kind of weather!). At the same time, keep your eyes on the sky tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon and evening since I can certainly guarantee instability. That said, I'd rather not like to see England at the mercy of harsh weather, yet again.

I think that covers everything important that I wanted to mention so that you'll all be prepared for tomorrow's weather. If anything changes, I'll be sure to post the updates. Until then, you can be sure that I'll be on the lookout all day.

Trav.

Good day,

Well, this is my last report for the day, but there may be a chance that we could be spared from storms for the next little while as I'm not detecting any storm activity on radar since the last small t-storm we just witnessed.

Everything I said in my previous post still stands, though, and there's always a possibility of something developing, so be equipted, just in case.

Other than that, please enjoy the English display!

Trav.

As promised, here are the pictures of the massive cumulonimbus (thundercloud) that was present for about more than 2 hours in development before the display even took place. I put the pictures in the order I took them, from when it was growing to when it began giving birth to lightning in the distance. Here are the links (these were all taken from De Lorimier):

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00374.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00375.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00376.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00378.jpg


Getting there:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00379.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00380.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00381.jpg


Until finally:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00383.jpg

Edit: Here are two more of the small storm (with a nice entrance) that occurred this afternoon:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00387.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00388.jpg


Hope you liked them! What a frantic evening that was.

Trav.

Perhaps it was best if there were no fireworks happening tomorrow seeing that there will be rain and embedded thundershowers taking place throughout most of the day.

That said, it's curious to see if whether or not there will be precipitation falling at 10:00 p.m tomorrow.

Edit: Actually, it wouldn't have been so bad after all today with mostly cloudy skies and accompanied on and off showers/embedded thundershowers interspersed with some possible sunny breaks. This evening will be mainly cloudy with the chance of showers. All the action will be in Southern and Southwestern Ontario with the possibility of severe t-storms.

Trav.

We shouldn't face any weather problem tonight despite 70% of rain. Even if it does rain, we will see maxmium 2-4mm of rain, which is practically nothing. It might come down torrentially, but it won't last long.

Hopefully, we'll be spared again.

Hi Enkil,

The expected accumulations of precipitation are often misleading. That same figure range (about 1-5 mm) arose earlier this afternoon and we received far more than that value in a very short amount of time due to the convective activity involved. That said, actual accumulations typically depend on the type of system formations associated with them; convection can deal copious rains in as little as 5 mins in many cases. Other than that, in my general observations, if rain typically falls regardless of what it's associated with, it ends up lingering beyond the initial range than what was expected. If nothing happens, well, then that's another story altogether.

On a side note, there's no fireworks this evening, so at least we won't have to put up with the miserable cool and wet weather tonight. Latest radar imagery sucks, but it's more disappointing for those in many parts of the Eastern U.S with the big displays happening there for Independence Day because of frontal systems coming through.

In any case, I'll have more updates for Saturday. See you then, Enkil.

Trav.

p.s. Hope you saw the storm today and the storms 2 days ago.

Hi guys,

Well, it seems I'm quite busy with weather reports this season! Indeed there is, yet again, the risk of precipitation this evening, but what differentiates last week from this one is that the possible rains are associated with a warm front, and not its counterpart, the volatile cold front. In this sense, I do not expect much in the way for thundershowers this evening both because of the lack of the lifting mechanism and that there isn't ample moisture present to get them going. What I can say is that there is still the chance for embedded thundershowers, but the risk still remains with generals rains (you have to go at least a couple hours Southwest to be appreciative of the warmer temperatures and to escape cloud cover associated with the front).

I was in downtown earlier this afternoon for the Carrifiesta parade and there were no rains whatsoever (just dense and ubiquitous cloud cover), but the winds were quite powerful (gusts were over 50 km/h). The winds should be diminishing at an acceptable level, but I think it will be a little breezy throughout the night.

Unlike last week, there's no risk of severe weather, but I suspect we'll just be again hoping that no rain showers will fall at 10 in the area (we're at 40% probability as things stand). Humidity wouldn't be abundant like last week, but there should be enough wind regardless.

I am ashamed to say this, but even in July I still have to suggest to bring a jacket this evening, especially because of the breezier conditions. Also, as you may have already gathered, please equipt yourselves with an umbrella. Southern and Southwestern Ontario are very lucky with their strong heat at the moment (as much as 36 C in some places) and will continue to be that way for the next 48 hours.

Edit: The good news is that the rain is not expected to be heavy if it does occur, but it's just the fact that there's enough instability to generate light rains or showers.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

Heat and humidity will be the pattern for today and tomorrow, but as you may have noted, it will about 4-5 degrees Celsius cooler on Thursday; this is because of a cold front. Thus, the situation will be somewhat similar to what was seen for England's presentation day with the risk of thunderstorms (some could develop into potent storms) as that front moves through.

However, given the relative speed of the frontal movement, there may be a possibility of storms to continue in the evening hours until the cool air finally ushers in later on during the overnight hours behind the cold front. While storms are possible throughout the afternoon and evening, the possibility of severe weather is most favorable between 2-8 p.m. The good news is that, for now, the main squall line is expected to move in near dinner time tomorrow.

I'll continue to track the front for the next 36 hours and provide an additional update as we approach the time of presentation. Regardless of what happens, though, it should be understood to be prepared.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

The threat of thunderstorms, which have to potential to be severe this afternoon and early this evening, are most probable from now until 8:00 p.m. I'm currently detecting a powerful wave of precipitation with very high reflectivity on radar to the West near Ottawa and Southwest towards Brockville, and that was about 30 minutes ago. I'm not saying it is definitely coming this way, but just remember that there's the risk, while other bands of cells could still develop following that.

Everything from my previous post still stands firmly, but I want to include that we'll be having quite breezy condiitons from the Southwest this evening. Reasons for these winds is again because of the passage of the cold front (it's quite windy as I type this). Temperatures will drop off to 22-24 Celsius along with mostly cloudy skies and lingering humidity in the air. Though the risk is much slighter this evening (30%), please don't denounce the chance completely; this was actually the same risk percentage during England's performance, by the way.

I wouldn't rule out the chance of thunderstorms/severe thunderstorms and showers until about 11:00 to early overnight. Please bring your umbrellas and also your radios to keep yourselves updated on the risk of severe weather.

If anything changes, I'll be sure to notify you all, but if even if it does, I still wouldn't take out the chance. At this point, as things stand, we should be alright, but still be prepared.

Trav.

From the Weather Channel radar, it looks obvious that heavy thunderstorms will hit the Montreal area in the next 30-60 minutes, but they should be away after 6:00pm or so. I hope that the crew has completed the setup and that everything is well covered.

Again, we should be safe for tonight!

Fred

We should be fine, everyone; there are no new bands of precipitation.

As for the "heavy" thunderstorms, they were not even heavy in their entirety. The real heavy thunderstorms are to the East of here.

Although there is nothing new at the moment (we're now behind the front), I still encourage you all to be prepared.

Enjoy the display.

Trav.

Greetings,

My, my, I am quite busy this season (I've never seen so many risks consecutively). There is a low pressure system moving in from the West and Southwest later on tomorrow bringing with it some possible rain showers in the evening and some scattered showers in the afternoon. Winds should predominantly be the same as was the case for China, which is from the Southwest and on the breezy side.

I'll have much more details later on, but again, please bring your umbrellas and a light jacket. At this point, there seems to be no risk of storms, but just a pesky low. However, if thunderstorms occur, they are likely to be embedded.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

This reminds me of what happened to the U.S in 2002, though that was different because severe thunderstorms were in the area, whereas this could be steady persistent rainfall.

Anyhow, we are calling for light rain showers this evening and overnight. Winds will be from the South and West (or a combination of both) at 10-15 km/h with on and off breezes gaining speeds of close to, I suspect, 25-30 km/h. There is some decent moisture in the atmosphere at this time (about 15 Celsius dewpoint value), but there should be enough wind to move smoke accumulations away regardless.

I'm detecting large moderate bursts and bands of precipitation to our Southwest. These bands will be moving through in the next little while with steady rains associated with them and some possible embedded thunder. Currently, some defined dark lower cumulus are starting to move in from the Southwest introducing some of the rainfall. Ottawa, Cornwall, Morrisburg, Kingston all the way to Toronto are currently seeing rainfall, or at least some form of it. These bands are moving fairly quickly towards the Northeast. Atmospheric pressure is also dropping, which is a good indication of unsettled weather.

We could be in for some wet and damp conditions, but all I can say is that I sincerely hope things will hold off during the start to the finish of the fireworks. We currently stand at 80%.

Please dress appropriately and come equipted, as always.

Trav.

Good evening,

Once more, there is a risk of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening as a disturbance of low pressure will be coming through Southern/Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec. It will be mainly cloudy tomorrow evening, but there is still the risk of storms and isolated showers. Some the of the t-storms in both provinces could reach severe limits since they are indeed associated with an upper level trough which will be enhancing instability (I'll have more information on that come tomorrow).

We stand with a good temperature of 22-24 Celsius under mainly cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation for tomorrow evening. Winds will be out from the East at 10-20 km/h with the occasional gust. Moisture levels will be identical or slightly higher than what was experienced during the American performance.

You know the routine. Just keep your umbrellas and other gear handy. I will present a final report sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Trav.

Greetings,

According to my observations taken outdoors and based on the weather analyses presented before me, I think that, for the most part, we should be alright. However, there is still the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms because it is unstable, humid and the air is moist (dewpoints are high at 19 Celsius), so there's always the possibility under these conditions. I'm stating the risk because, in addition to the multitude of cumulus congestus clouds seen out there, Ottawa, Cornwall, Morrisburg also are as part of the risk this evening as well. As TRae pointed out, we should be mostly under variable to mainly cloudy skies at about 10:00 p.m, but I wouldn't rule out the chance of precipitation. That said, we are not in the severe thunderstorm watch box, but they are all around us at the moment. Thunderstorms, however, have been reported in Quebec City, Ottawa and many spots in Eastern Ontario near the border.

Everything else in my previous report still stands, but I just want to add that the winds may sometimes come from the North or Northeast at the same speeds (10-20 km/h). The bigger rains are tomorrow through to Friday, but I want to make it clear that there is again a chance showers and even a thunderstorm this evening. It wouldn't hurt to bring your umbrellas, just in case.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

As mentioned already to Pierre, for the first time since Spain's performance, I have nothing to report of for this evening's weather! All I can say is that high pressure has been moving in since last night resulting in fair and warmer Summer-like conditions with some slight humidity. Winds will be coming from the Northwest or perhaps at times from the North at 10-15 km/h while humidity levels should stay relatively constant and stable temperatures at or close to 22 Celsius. As Enkil would say, there's really nothing much to worry about this evening besides some admirable cloudy periods.

It would seem as if the weather is finally turning back into Summer from my birthday onwards into a good portion of the week, where even more humidity and higher temperatures are finally expected to return to most of Eastern Canada! Given that nearly the entire month was lousy, I think we should take the time to enjoy these conditions for a change!

Good weather coupled with a fireworks display this evening equals an excellent birthday treat. I'm very grateful.

Trav.

Good evening,

For the second time running, we will be experiencing a beautiful July-like evening with temperatures remaining constant at about 26-27 Celsius under some slight humidity making it feel like 31-33 Celsius. Skies will be predominantly clear with perhaps a few clouds here and there thanks to the same building high pressure I spoke of last time. The wind, about 10-15 km/h from the West, should be enough to blow the smoke away despite the humidity present tomorrow evening.

We will hit a high of about 30-32 C under mainly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon, so please enjoy the day and the upcoming days as well, much like we have since the 21st.

Germany should have perfect Summer weather for their performance. Best of luck to the final entrant.

Trav.

Just a final update, but the winds should be from the Southwest and still possibly from the West occasionally. However, the humidity levels will remain constant and the wind speeds this evening have somewhat diminished to about 5-10 km/h. We do seem to have about 15 km/h winds from the SW this afternoon, but I just hope there's enough wind to clear the smoke during the show this evening. I'm hopeful to see a continued wind velocity this evening identical to that expected this afternoon.

I'll post any new updates if anything different is presented later on today.

Trav.

Showers and thunderstorms/thundershowers will again make an appearance throughout the day today thanks to a very slow moving, though weakening, cold front associated with vigorous low pressure system situated well South of the border.

Winds are expected to be generally light from the South and Southwest at 5-10 km/h while moisture and humidity levels will be rather high to generate the kind of humidex (31-33 C) I'm seeing at the ambient temperature of 23 Celsius this evening, which could be a problem if there is a lack of wind at the same time. Obviously, atmospheric pressure will be low and thus making way for quite unstable conditions. Most of the storms have the greatest potential early this morning (don't be surprise if they wake you up) into the afternoon, some of which could be isolated severe. I suspect the same will hold true in the evening hours, especially with the abundant humidity involved.

There is a chance that the forecast might change for the better, but it depends on the speed of the cold front. I'll have a final weather report outlining this sometime later today.

With a mostly threatening fireworks season with weather this year, I suppose it's only natural to end the same way. Regardless of what happens, please go prepared; you know the routine. At this point, let's hope we're spared at 10:00 p.m and of course during the award presentations being held at about 1/2 hour before that.

Trav.

Possibly the final weather report for the season!

Still the risk of showers and thunderstorms today, especially this afternoon, but to a smaller degree this evening (40%). This risk is still associated with the same cold front, but I have a feeling it will move out by the time the fireworks are set to start, even for the awards presentations.

Winds will now be out from the North with a little more helpful speeds at 10-15 km/h rather than the light Southerly wind. The new Northerly wind is a directional shift coming from behind the front itself, which is why it is transitioning from the more pronounced Southerly and Southwesterly flow we are currently seeing ahead of the front. The North/Northeast winds starting later tonight and through tomorrow will take some humidity away, but not all of it, thankfully enough, because it is a relatively weak frontal system. Moisture levels are still stagnant (dewpoint values between 19-21 C) along with the same ambient temperature of 23 C until the front finally moves through towards the Southeast, but hopefully the given winds will indeed be present to keep any smoke build up from occurring (as in Panzera 2004 from my viewpoint).

Regardless, bring your umbrellas and come prepared, although I don't think even a tornadic supercell would stop us from attending this performance.

Finally, I want to point out that there are severe thunderstorm watches established for regions surrounding Montreal, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're added to the watch box later on as well. The severity will diminish come later this evening both with the departure of the front coupled with the loss of daytime heating. Until then, watch out for possible developing storms ahead and along the front.

What a year this was for me in watching and analyzing weather threats for the fireworks, even though everyone was not interferred by the conditions between the 10-10:30 time frame. However, with the slight threat this evening, that makes 6 out of 9 displays under the gun this season, while having 2 extremely close calls (England and USA).

In any case, a little present from me: expect a hot, hazy and humid (the 3 Hs) week with the occasional chance of thunderstorms/heavy thunderstorms (my kind of week). An impressive start to August as well, unlike June and July.

Peace!

Trav.

Hi guys,

I just wanted to share some photos that I took yesterday evening with the severe thunderstorm that just skimmed the West Island, while especially influencing regions further South. I learned that there were tornado watches associated with this monstrosity further South and West, and this was an automatic conclusion from me based on the Mammatus formations I've witnessed hanging from the anvil last night. Some of the most beautiful and intimidating cloud formations took place last evening and I have not seen anything like them in some time. Here are some photos:

The anvil (if you were at a distance, you could see the entire thing):

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00549.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00549.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00542.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00542.jpg
[/url]

Massive congestus clouds:

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00541.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00541.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00540.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00540.jpg
[/url]

The Mammatus (very rare to see this intricate formation so distinctively):

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00558.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00558.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00555.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00555.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00559.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00559.jpg
[/url]

Mammatus with plane:

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00552.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00552.jpg
[/url]

If you ever see the Mammatus, it is important that you take extreme caution if the storm is near, or is approaching your region. The cloud indicates reverse-direction convection, where the warm powerful updrafts convect downwards into the much colder air directly below the anvil, causing condensation underneath and gradually become the globules distinctively seen in the photos. This also is only seen when the storm has reached its optimum maturity, and is a clear sign that the storm is potentially capable of producing tornadic activity. Numerous watches and warnings for severe thunderstorms and potentially tornadoes were posted last night to the South.

Trav.

I'm still a little skeptical about Wednesday's weather. A warm front affecting Southwestern and Southern Ontario tomorrow will gradually approach our region later on Wednesday, bringing with it some moderate showers and light rains.

As for Friday, with respect to what I mentioned earlier about a "disturbance" developing which could change things that day, it may actually become a reality. I recently learned that the disturbance could be a vigorous Colorado low, a system that is quite common at this time of year and during the Winter months. The rains will (at this point in time) arrive Friday, and the low will deliver quite a bit of it through to Saturday, or even Sunday depending on its speed. It's a gamble, but I hope its movement will slow somewhat and hold off until Saturday. Even if Friday appears to improve, I suspect that there's still the chance that the rain could arrive in the evening hours. Unfortunately the low will cool off the milder air provided by the warm front coming on Wednesday.

Just wanted to bring it up so you're all aware of the risk.

Trav.

Wednesday's weather should be OK, but a bit cold, and Friday's weather could be a disaster. At least, there won't be strong winds. The again, who knows, the weather might change for Friday.