In reference to my above message, the newer model outputs haven't changed dramatically, although the low pressure system has been exhibiting signs of slowing. In any case, here is what to typically expect in terms of weather conditions for today, July 24th.

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures are likely reaching the very high 20s C (possibly striking 30 C depending on how much sun is present) during the afternoon as that nearly endless warm frontal boundary continues to migrate further to the North during the early afternoon hours today. Progressively, high to potentially very high humidity will settle into Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario for the afternoon hours, again because of the warm sector's closer proximity to the regions. Consequently, humidex values will read into the high 30s C during the day (37 C) and low 30s (I believe 33 C) by late evening along with temperatures still remaining as high as 25 C at this time, especially in the metropolitan area.

Precipitation

The area of low pressure has slowed a little, which is somewhat affecting the timing and influence of that cold frontal wave on Southern Quebec that I had mentioned above. However, the risk for convective showers and thunderstorms is still possible spanning from the afternoon hours due to the warm front (30% P.O.P) and through to the early overnight period (40% in the evening to 60% P.O.P overnight) because of the passage of the cold front. As the cold front begins to gradually close in, the air will become increasingly unstable, producing the risk for convective showers and thunderstorms (mostly non-severe storms). I wouldn't rule out the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorm cells to erupt during the very late afternoon-early evening timeframe due to the reasonable amount of energy available, as well as the humidity - the chance for severe weather becomes greater once you head Southwest into Eastern and Southern Ontario. Ultimately, skies should be mostly cloudy. ***A reminder, once again, that this sort of setup does not automatically suggest that it will indeed pour at any given point of the day, but rather that the risk for rain showers and thunderstorms are possible due to a buoyant atmosphere. Not everyone in the affected areas will in fact see unsettled conditions - the day is actually generally pleasant and Summer-like.

Wind

Winds are likely Southwesterly in tendency through the day due to the positioning of the system. I still believe that winds could shift slightly more from the South-Southwest by early evening. Either way, smoke should be often moving to the right of the audience at La Ronde, though if Southwesterlies remain present, smoke could occasionally affect spectators at the extreme right end. Winds are light for the evening hours at 12-15 km/h, though breezier at 18-21 km/h during the early afternoon (occasional gusts up to 28 km/h).
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That's the way the weather should behave. In general, light Southwesterly to gradual South-Southwesterly winds with very warm temperatures into the mid 20s C coupled with high to very humidity. Convective showers and thunderstorms possible, particularly during the very late afternoon period and onwards into the overnight - otherwise, mostly cloudy skies (with some defined cumulus congestus clouds) by that point in time. Most of the day is pleasant.

As was the case last week, a typical July day on the horizon.

Trav.

As mentioned in the other thread, the system has showed some additional signs of slowing down in the model runs from this morning. Because of the delay, severe weather is less likely in Southern Quebec as compared to Southern Ontario later today. There is still the slight possibility for isolated showers (30%) this afternoon and during the late evening hours (with the odd t-shower), which I would accompany with a 30% P.O.P. (from 40%) - 60% still holds truthful for the overnight period. In general, skies should be about 70% cloudy this evening.

Current cloud cover is associated with the warm front, but there will be some sunny breaks. Winds are still expected to mostly blow smoke adequately to the right of the audience at La Ronde.

For everything else, please refer to my previous post as the information provided still holds true.

Trav.

Hey Trav,

By the looks of this: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_xL7aFL3PdP0/TEtTldcr7JI/AAAAAAAAABU/lVcq9I70 pl4/s1600/IMAG0004.JPG

Looks like theres a good chance of rain. But hopefully it won't last too long. I hope.

Pat

As an area of high pressure is settling into Eastern Canada for much of this weekend, atmospheric instability is suppressed, and so I do not anticipate precipitation development for tomorrow (the final day of July, sadly) in its entirety - relative humidity/saturation levels at the surface and aloft are much too low. Temperatures will likely be hovering around 18 C by late evening Saturday in the metropolitan area (around 24-25 C during the day) while humidity levels should be at borderline low-moderate standards.

With an area of high pressure, winds tend to be more variable in nature along with generally light to very light speeds. However, current model projections are showing the center of the system moving Eastward into the Atlantic by late evening, which suggests to me light Southerly to South-Southwesterly (SSW) winds - directional tendencies that would be ideal for all spectators. Speeds are certainly light between 7-10 km/h, which would still be reasonable considering the humidity level range.

As always, I'll provide a final update later this evening to confirm these conditions, but I want to still keep tabs on particularly wind tendency as they can change in the latter progs (again due to high pressure). Either way, I am expecting light winds under mostly clear skies with a few cumulus clouds. Temperatures a little on the cool side for the late evening with low-moderate humidity.

Trav.

After reviewing the later model simulation outputs both from yesterday and this morning, the information provided above still remains truthful. Here are the atmospheric conditions to typically expect for today, July 31st:

Temperature/Humidity

I'm expecting temperatures during the day today to attain 23 C along with a cool late evening temperature of 18 C (potentially 19 C in the metropolitan area). Humidity levels are leaning more on the low side, so they are naturally negligible in initiating even a slight humidex reading. Winds are very light, however, so it shouldn't feel too much cooler. Reasons behind the fairly rapid temperature drop (especially overnight) is simply because of the influence of high atmospheric pressure, low humidity and relatively calm conditions, which all favor rapid radiational cooling following dusk.

Precipitation

Not much to note here this time around. With an area of high pressure and the accompanied saturated-deprived atmosphere at low to high level, precipitation development is not really expected. There will be, however, a few groups of cumulus clouds due to weak atmospheric instability through the day, but none of them will be too defined on the vertical.

Wind

This is where it is a little tricky. Speeds again are very light throughout the day and into the evening while direction is variable in Southern Quebec. I am still anticipating winds to shift from the Southwest to more South-Southwest (SSW) to even South-Southeast (SSE) by late evening, and so smoke should be very slowly blowing predominantly to the right of the audience at La Ronde. I don't expect much in the way of rapid smoke buildup due to the largely low humidity levels. However, there may very well be periods of heavier accumulations when the display becomes more active due to the very light nature of the winds, which I'm expecting to now be calm to 4-5 km/h.
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That's the way the weather should typically behave. To sum it up, mostly clear skies with a few low cumulus cloud clusters. Humidity levels are generally low and temperatures are a little on the cool side by late evening. I suspect winds from the SSW-SSE by late evening and continuing to exhibit very light tendencies (a touch breezier during the mid-afternoon). The UV index is high today at 8, so protect yourself accordingly if outdoors for elongated periods.

A pleasant day on the way.

And Pat, that is a nice picture you shared above. The low dark cumulus clouds in combination with the overcasted mid-high level variety commonly point to some form of rain in the upcoming hours - that was in fact the case last week, though luckily not as heavy as the downpour during the American display.

Trav.

This display seems to have anticipation of great weather ahead of us tonight. However, the wind is a factor that might have it's bad parts. As you mentioned, that the wind is (most likely) headed towards the right of the audience, we must hope that we are able to see most of the display without buildup of smoke blocking the view of many people.

My setup photos are on the team Goteborgs topic.

Pat

Heavy instability continues to affect Ontario and Quebec due to a series of systems bringing with them hot and very humid conditions today, tomorrow and over the last couple of days - I haven't really seen an atmopsheric setup like this particular one since 2006 and 2004. I did go on a little storm chase around Montreal two days ago on August 2nd when heading to Mont-Royal to obtain some photographs. Here are some photos and video that I wanted to share:

August 2nd:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3180.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3142.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3149.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3169.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3158.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3167.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3170.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3159.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3134.jpg

Videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84F0kL40ivA

Cloud to ground lightning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPrfnhLJsyU

Spectacular streak lightning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxFKMoIM6k0

August 3rd:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3209.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PH8DQZtoWE8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUDpvgKZ0fo

August 4th:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3247.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3249.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3251.jpg

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUV0zCha4ls

A tornado may have been spawned with a severe thunderstorm yesterday afternoon (August 3rd) near St-Eustache while flash-flooding rains have been reported in numerous areas in Southern Quebec, including here in parts of Montreal. Thunderstorms are again possible for tomorrow (August 5th), a few which could be reaching severe standards in the mid afternoon-evening period.
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I was initially going to bring this up previously, but the weather didn't permit for ideal viewing of the rare Aurora Borealis tonight and last night due to heavy rains, thunderstorms, partly cloudy skies and patches of fog. In any case, here are some stunning viewer photos that were taken:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/yahooeditorspicks/galleries/7215762465332 5820/

Though it is common to witness this nocturnal spectacle at high to polar latitudes as well as occasionally further South into the mid-latitudinal regions, particularly intense solar eruptions, called coronal mass ejections, are capable of rendering the aurora visible to those residing further South following dusk - in this case, the rare powerful eruption was set off since August 1st, but the unleashed charged particles heading towards the Earth only arrived until last night and will linger once more into tonight (August 4th).

Solar maximums and minimums typically complete their cycles every 9-11 years. When an intense solar eruption takes place - that is, when there is a maximum in solar activity - it ejects an enormous amount of rapidly traveling charged particles (plasma) through interstellar space. The average speed of these particles is roughly 400 km per second, but are distinctively higher in both speed and energy when solar eruptions are strong. As they approach the Earth, these particles interact with the planet's magnetic field and are deflected away, creating an invisible cap-like shape around the planet along magnetic field lines. Some of these particles, however, pierce into the upper atmosphere if the magnetic field becomes overwhelmed, where they collide with the molecules and atoms of various atmospheric gases. Some of the energy from the charged particles is transferred to the electrons of the molecules of the gases, exciting them in the process while they attain higher levels of energy. Once the electrons progressively de-excite and revert back to their original orbit and energy level, they then give off radiation in the form of a photon of light, and it is this light that produces the awesome fading-emerging curtain/wave of colors in the upper atmosphere. The color rendered ultimately depends on the gases that the charged particles interact with - for atomic oxygen, the colors are commonly green or red, whereas atomic nitrogen would give off red and violet.

Other than that, pleasant weather on the way for Saturday once tomorrow's cold front passes through. More details by tomorrow evening.

Trav.

Hi Trav! I saw a spectacular lightning show tonight! I'm currently on the east side of Laval island. Around 9:00pm, we could see about one strike each 1-3 seconds! The thunderstorm was far away, though, since the thunder wasn't loud. For sure, that was related to the change of air system. I'm glad to have drier air for tomorrow and Saturday.

Fred

As expected, severe weather has rolled through many parts of Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario yesterday afternoon (August 5th) and during the early evening hours (see videos below) along and ahead of a vigorous cold front sliding from the WNW-NW. As Fred stated above, the storms are related to this progressively changing airmass as cooler and drier air slowly settles in behind the cold front tonight and through today and Saturday. Notice the winds have shifted from SSW-SW to now the WNW-NW.

As far as the forecast goes for France's display tomorrow (Saturday), I am anticipating continuing pleasant and dry weather along with plenty of sunshine as an area of strong high pressure moves into much of Eastern Canada later today. Winds should be predominantly light during the day Saturday from variably the WSW to Westerlies. I am, however, expecting a shift to more SSW to SW by the late afternoon hours, which would be ideal for folks stationed at La Ronde as smoke blows mostly to the right. Speeds should increase slightly to about 14-18 km/h by the early evening from the 8-11 km/h during the day due a stronger building pressure gradient. Temperatures are a little on the cool side by late evening at roughly 19-20 C in the metropolitan area (feeling a touch cooler with the possible moderate winds). Humidity levels are low and skies will be mostly clear with some high level cirrus cloud.

Other than that, expect a September-like Friday with a mix of sun and cloud through the day (slight risk of a brief morning shower) with breezy Northwesterlies. Temperatures struggling to hit 20 C.
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The computer weather models did a fantastic job predicting where the strongest storm cells would emerge over the last few days since August 2nd. As I had mentioned previously, I haven't seen an atmospheric setup like this since 2006 and 2004 where we had four consecutive days where severe weather was possible (and actually occurring for every one of these days in and around the island). For yesterday evening's severe storm, I literally watched it develop diligently since it was in its infancy and was so sure that it would eventually become a massive cumulonimbus due to the sun we received following the afternoon storm, the heavy humidity and the passing cold front.

Around 9:00pm, we could see about one strike each 1-3 seconds!

Fred, you're right about the lightning frequency associated with this storm. When lightning is frequent, it suggests that the storm's updrafts are quite powerful and that rapid condensation is taking place. As the influx of warm moist air becomes greater as a result of these updrafts, more ice crystals are produced at mid-high levels of the cloud, which facilitates frequent lightning. At times, frequent lightning can point to a tornadic storm as well, and there were some points where mild lowering was observed along the shelf cloud. No tornado touchdowns, however. Glad you enjoyed the storm from a distance - it must have been truly something to behold! I noticed the line of multicell storms primarily affected the West Island, Southwestern Laval and parts of central Montreal. For us here in the West Island, it was flash after flash with heavy rains (mixed with some pea-sized hail) and strong winds (up to 70 km/h) coming from the storm's downdrafts. There was some localized flash flooding as well as some isolated power outages following the storm.

Here are some photos I took (radar imagery included) as well as some video of the storms that came through yesterday afternoon and evening:

August 5th:

Afternoon storms:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3287.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3269.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3282.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3282.jpg

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBgDoGYmuW8

Evening storm:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3318.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3316.jpg

Stages of growth:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3297.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3298.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3301.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3305.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3307.jpg

Videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25WEgeO5v0Y

Eventually more frequent lightning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSNEmi9szPw

Storm overhead:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBOBNKs3dSg

And here are some beautiful crepuscular rays following the first afternoon storm that skimmed us to the North:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3280.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3281.jpg

And a sunset image before the storm:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3303.jpg

What a week this was for thunderstorms in Montreal - quite a rare occurrence indeed.

Trav.

What was stated in the first section of my above post still holds true in its entirety for the final entrant. As such, here is what to generally expect in terms of weather for Saturday, August 7th:

Temperature/Humidity

Because of the area of high pressure in place, daytime highs are expected to remain unseasonably cool at 21-22 C, although it naturally feels warm when you're in the sun. I anticipate late evening temperatures on the cool side at around 17-18 C in the metropolitan area, but unlike last week, the existing winds may provide an extra little chill. Humidity levels will continue on maintaining low standards through the day.

Precipitation

Following a week of volatile weather, I conversely do not expect any precipitation to develop for Saturday due to atmospheric stability and low relative humidity at high and low level. There will, however, be some clusters of cumulus clouds and high level cirrus during the day because of very mild instability, but like last week, very few of them are expected to be defined on the vertical - following dusk, it should be mostly clear with a few lingering cumulus clouds.

Wind

Winds are expected to be breezy during the afternoon hours at 19-22 km/h from the West-Southwest (WSW) to eventually Southwesterlies by mid-afternoon. The windiest of conditions (due to a steep pressure gradient) should fall predominantly between 2-5:00 p.m at 22-26 km/h with gusts up to 34 km/h. I am detecting winds becoming lighter by evening at 11-15 km/h and tilting more from the SSW, and so smoke should be heading adequately mostly to the right of the audience at La Ronde by 10:00 p.m. Rapid smoke buildup shouldn't be an issue due to low humidity and ideal wind speeds.
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That's the way the weather should work for our final competitor of the 2010 edition of Montreal fireworks. To sum it up, a mostly clear night with light South-Southwesterly (SSW) winds and low humidity under a few tranquil cumulus clouds.

Edit: And here is a viewer photo of a snapped tree in the Laval area from last night's storm:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/details/620/3091933/1/ca qc0142/plpcities?ref=ugc_city_thumbs

Trav.

Hi STL,

Your forecast for Wednesday, August 11th, in Appleton, Wisconsin is as follows:

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures are expected to attain the very high 20s C and possibly low 30s C (as much as 31 C depending on the amount of sunshine present) with very high humidity (sticky), making it feel like into the very high 30s C and potentially the very low 40s C. Late day showers and thunderstorms, if any, however, will briefly cool the air when present, although the rains will increase the moisture content. Early evening temperatures holding steady from 23-24 C with continuing high levels of moisture, making it feel as high as 32 C given the relative humidity. Be sure to stay well hydrated if out for elongated periods during the day.

Precipitation

Convective showers and thunderstorms are possible for much of the state of Wisconsin, although mostly for the later afternoon-early evening hours because of a passing cold front descending from Western Canada. Ahead of the front, daytime heating showers and thunderstorms are possible due to the buoyancy of the airmass through the day – note that some isolated thunderstorms could be reaching severe standards due to the abundant available energy present as well as the cold the passing cold front. Because of the isolated nature of these showers and storms, I would accompany the risk at 40%, with similar probabilities later in the evening to the early overnight period as the cold front approaches from the Northwest. Skies should remain partly cloudy during the later overnight hours. The cold front is not expected to drop temperatures and humidity significantly for Thursday as another area of low pressure advances from the West and maintaining winds from the SE-SSE and bringing the continued risk for storms later in the day.

Wind

With the center of the influencing low pressure system over Manitoba by the evening hours, I anticipate light winds from mostly the Southeast. There may be locally occasional South-Southeasterlies (SSE) due the funneling effect of Lake Winnebago to your South, tilting the winds a touch towards the NNE by the time they reach Appleton. Speeds should be light at 7-11 km/h with slightly breezier conditions during the afternoon to as high as 16 km/h, and so smoke should be blowing mostly straight away from where you will be stationed towards the back end of the firing site and sometimes gently to your left. Smoke buildup will occasionally be rapid due to very high humidity and light winds, especially if or when the display becomes more active. Luckily, however, the winds are expected to blow mostly towards the display from the SE, so this should allow for a mostly decent viewing and clearing. Even if winds should tilt away from their anticipated direction by evening, I personally do not believe that the change will be enough to send the smoke towards the audience – in fact, the winds across central and central-Northern parts of the U.S are likely experiencing wind velocities similar to what you will be witnessing.
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That’s the way the weather should generally work. In essence, the air is very warm to hot standards with very high humidity. Showers and mid-late afternoon as well as early evening thunderstorms are possible. Winds light and blowing mostly from behind you.

I also wanted to take a moment and congratulate you on your achievement. Indeed, that letter was certainly very interesting, and as I had stated previously, it is a real honor that a display dedicated to a seasonally-oriented theme was selected to be performed live! It is fantastic to see that your good work will come to fruition, especially since you provided the theme with so much vitality!

I look forward to your report and experience, and, like Fred also said, I wish you a safe and enjoyable trip to Wisconsin. Luckily for you, you’re heading into the nice Summer weather (assuming of course that you like the high humidity!)

Trav.

Ah, the last set of forecasts for the 2010 competition.

The atmospheric setup coming into play is expected to bring with it very warm and moist conditions throughout roughly the next several days. What is happening is that the area of high pressure that has been in place for the last couple of days (yesterday inclusively) is slowly heading Eastward into the Atlantic, allowing for a nice returning Southeasterly to South-Southeasterly flow (SSE) to take over for the next few days. In addition, an intensifying area of low pressure (the same one that is soon affecting STL's current location in Appleton, WI for Friday) is heading Eastward, which is amplifying the SSE circulation of warm moist air into much of Eastern Canada for the weekend and the start of the work week. Consequently, Saturday, August 14th, is expected to be Summer-like with very warm temperatures into the high 20s C (as high as 29 C) along with high humidity, making it feel as high as 36-37 C - you'll notice the humidity building progressively today (Friday). Temperatures should remain as high as 25 C in the metropolitan area by late evening.

Because of the atmospheric pressure tendencies and a strengthening pressure gradient, I believe that winds will be moderate for Saturday at 15-19 km/h with occasional gusts of up to 26-28 km/h. Wind speeds during the evening are likely the same at 15-19 km/h and maintaining a SSE directional tendency, and so smoke should be, as was the case with France, blowing fairly quickly well to the right of the audience at La Ronde during the 10 minute display.

I am still monitoring precipitation models for Saturday evening because of slightly high relative humdity values at low and high level, but I do not expect rains and thunderstorms to really develop until early Sunday and onwards as the warm and cold fronts start advancing into the region. There will be some clusters of vertically defined cumulus clouds later in the day due to building instability, however.

In any case, I will confirm these conditions later this evening, especially in terms of precipitation.
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Weather conditions are fairly ideal to see the meteor shower taking place tonight and Friday night as skies will likely be mostly clear, though a little more hazy with the higher humidity. The best time to catch the event is between midnight and towards dawn - it is also preferable to be away from excessive light when scanning the skies for the shower. Reports state that you can see an average of roughly 20 shooting stars per hour.

Also, at and following dusk Friday, look straight to the West to see Venus (the bright object in the sky) joined by a crescent moon phase. After sunset, you may also be able to get a glimpse of Saturn and Mars closeby to Venus, all forming a triangle (the case for the last several days). It will, however, be a little tougher to see the other two planets if there is copious amounts of light obscuring your viewing. Locate Venus first before the other two planets.

Trav.

What was stated in my previous message above still stands firmly for Saturday's weather. As such, here is your final forecast for the 2010 fireworks competition:

Temperature/Humidity

With the strength of the SSE circulation, I anticipate daytime highs to reach 29 C, along with high humidity making it feel as high as 36 C. Humidity will remain high during the evening hours with temperatures steady at 24-25 C in the metropolitan area by the late evening period and feeling as much as 31 C.

Precipitation

I do not anticipate precipitation to develop during the late evening period Saturday because of blocking high pressure locked in place over the Atlantic, but there will be some vertically defined cumulus cloud cover associated with moderate instability. Convective rains and thunderstorms (some isolated severe cells) are possible for Sunday through to Tuesday.

Wind

Winds are very likely out from the South-Southeast (SSE) with this Summer-like atmospheric setup and I am expecting speeds to remain moderate from 15-19 km/h with occasional gusts of up to 26-28 km/h. Winds will be slightly breezier (from the same direction) into the mid afternoon hours at 19-23 km/h with gusts of up to 32 km/h. The result is that winds should be blowing smoke quickly to the right of the audience at La Ronde. Smoke will appear thick in nature due to the high humidity.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------
That's the way the weather should generally behave. To summarize, warm late evening temperatures with high humidity under some cloudy periods due to moderate instability. Winds breezy and blowing out from the SSE. Overall, a Summery next few days on the way!

And so concludes the weather reports for the 2010 fireworks competition. It was a real pleasure in providing all of the necessary information for each display as well as some coverage of the weather extremes we've come across in between since June. I hope that everything was satisfactory and useful. I will continue to periodically provide any celestial news or if we encounter any weather extremes in Southern Quebec, which is a possibility in the upcoming days starting tomorrow (Sunday).

Trav.

As stated briefly in the post above, severe weather, as expected, rolled through much of Southern Quebec today, including here in Montreal early this morning. The severe thunderstorms were triggered by a vigorous slow-moving cold front, which set off powerful storms yesterday in Northern and Southern Ontario yesterday and in Southern Quebec today, one storm of which may have spawned an unconfirmed tornado East of Drummondville this afternoon.

I am happy to say that TWN once again aired some of my footage of this morning's storm. I would also like to share the videos with you guys.

Radar imagery:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3383.jpg

Videos (I capture many beautiful CGs (cloud to ground) lightning discharges throughout):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEurnp_OiD0

Storm overhead (a couple loud thunderclaps):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z8a0MuQp6k

And a storm I captured while on Mount Royal on the 10th of August (looking roughly 50 km Northeast) when chasing:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3363.jpg

As you can tell now, humidity levels have dropped and winds were gusty today after the passage of the cold front.

Trav.

Don't say goodbye to Summer just yet. As I had been watching over the last 48 hours, a strong ridge of high pressure is slowly going to be persistently hovering over Eastern Canada, permitting for a good stretch of Summer-like weather starting this weekend. As such, very warm/hot and moist conditions are expected to engage Eastern Canada as the area of strengthening high pressure (along with the aid an intensifying low pressure system out West) circulates this tropical airmass from the Southwest, giving us a beautiful end to August and an equally compelling start to the month of September. This area of high pressure will also play an important role in steering Hurricane Danielle away from the Maritimes in the long range.

Enjoy the upcoming weather.

Trav.

Some footage that I had wanted to share with regards to the severe weather that came racing through much of Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec yesterday evening (September 7th). Though storms at the level of strength in which we had witnessed last night are not too common in the month of September as compared to late June through to August, they can still very well emerge providing that the right atmospheric dynamics are in place, which was the case yesterday.

The models were projecting high instability in the specified regions since the day before the storms took form, and my level of confidence in them actually occurring grew greater earlier yesterday as helicity (windshear) values in combination with convective energy values became sufficiently high enough to support the development of strong storms by the late afternoon and early evening. Furthermore, there was plenty of surface heating during the day while the moisture content was reasonably elevated. The vigorous cold front was then the final mechanism to provide the necessary lift for the storms, and its timing was perfect as it moved into the affected regions by dusk, when heating is at its maximum. The intensity and frequency of the lightning, in particular, associated with many of these multicell thunderstorms seemed consistent with the relatively high windshear and convective energy present. Without further delay, here is some of the footage I acquired:

Storm closing in:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02seugzO97E

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N7us61boaY

Overhead:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_8YOJZgThU&feature=related

Ferocious thunderclap (setting off car alarms):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftQOCqcmTds

Powerful cloud to ground strike (extracted from the first video above):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfLC8ng1ac4

Photographs:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3464.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3440.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3444.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3480.jpg

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As expected, with the cold front's passage came a cooler, windier (from the WNW-WSW) and continuing unsettled airmass, making the atmosphere revert to more September-like weather. A pleasant start to the weekend, however, with temperatures moving up to as much as 24 C with some humidity.

Trav.

A typical Winter is possible for much of Canada (more details provided below).

Despite Fall arriving officially about a week ago (September 22nd, at 11:09 p.m.) and October just moments away, there are already many showing curiosity as to what sort of weather could prevail this coming Winter - such is to be expected given the unique nature exhibited by the very warm and snow-deprived Winter 2009-2010. El Nino was the dominant factor that governed the end of 2009 and a fair portion of 2010’s weather, notably the Winter and Spring seasons. Although El Nino vanished well before Summer, its influence continued to linger into the warmest months of the year as things quickly transitioned over to more neutral conditions (no El Nino or La Nina signatures). As it turned out, this past Summer followed closely along the lines of the models’ initial predictions with respect to temperature and precipitation, as it was very warm and humid from the end of June spanning persistently as far as the beginning of September, with small warm episodes in between following the first week of September. Thunderstorms were plentiful (some severe) and responsible for the vast majority of our precipitation since early April. Winter was undoubtedly mild (and record-breaking in numerous cases) this past year with very little snow cover across the country, and Spring continued on the same pathway, though with anomalous rainfall (below normal) patterns seen in May and unseasonably cool weather during the start of the second week of the month. June, in its entirety, was the sole exception in not following the above normal trend with respect to temperature. Now that Summer has (sadly) come to a close, Fall 2010 and Winter 2010-2011 are accompanied by an opposing force: La Nina.

El Nino has weakened considerably over the Spring with very brief neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific since the end of April. By May, however, things started to take a little turn - negative sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) had appeared, suggesting that a cooling had commenced in the Eastern and central equatorial Pacific. The climate models predicted that these values would become increasingly negative following July, surely enough that a weak La Nina would take form. As was the case, La Nina had developed by the end of the Summer, throwing some hints that it would continue to intensify as had been predicted by most of the models beforehand. As things currently stand, La Nina is on the verge of striking moderate status and there is the possibility that it could reach borderline moderate-strong standards in time for this Winter.

Winter 2010-2011 outlook:

Temperature

With a La Nina signal in place, and assuming at least moderate strength, this tends to favor normal to slightly below normal Winter monthly temperatures in Eastern Canada, especially for January and February. La Nina frequently fosters a polar jet stream that allows for cold, dry Arctic air to descend South into much of the country, particularly the West, making for more episodes of cold overnight lows and at times some consecutive periods of frigid daytime highs - this is to a lesser extent than Western and central Canada, however.

Precipitation

La Nina Winters tend to bring with them variable amounts of precipitation, but they typically possess atmospheric conditions that are conducive to snowy seasons, especially in central and Eastern parts of Canada and the United States. With the average jet stream configuration, this would allow for strong low pressure systems to advance farther North, especially along the Eastern seaboard - I am seeing indications of those patterns with the current and recent Fall storms that brought us copious rainfall. Low pressure areas could also frequently intensify due to a nearly consistent influx of cold Arctic air descending from Northern Canada into the United States, where it would interact with warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico further South. As such, in terms of snowfall, we could see normal to above normal snow amounts this Winter, with the first measurable snows possibly falling midway to the end of November.

Despite the overall patterns described above, this does not necessarily imply a harsh Winter by any means, but rather Winter-like. La Nina does not so much have an impact on Fall weather, but it can begin to take effect by the end of the season. All things being equal, most of Fall 2010 should be roughly average in terms of temperature and precipitation. Although it has occurred previously, it is rather unusual when a La Nina phase follows an El Nino (and vice versa) so abruptly – typically there are several successive months that show near normal conditions before either a given El Nino or La Nina event take place. La Nina itself is expected to remain with us until Summer.

If you adore Winter, then this coming season could very well be to your liking.
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Presently, the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are delivering a deluge of rainfall across much of Southern Quebec from the Eastern seaboard, enough to prompt rainfall warnings for affected areas, including here in Montreal. The rains should come to a close by the later overnight hours tonight, leaving mainly cloudy conditions (and a few lingering periods of light showers) for most of the day tomorrow (October 1st). Once this system clears, a strong area of high pressure will settle in, providing us with chilly October-like weather for this weekend accompanied by the possibility of our first frost for Sunday morning and Monday morning. Temperatures will rebound to seasonal standards as the work week progresses once that ridge in the West slowly migrates further East.
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EDIT: I had also wanted to share a brief video I took of Jupiter at its brightest and a full moon phase conjunction on September 20th, 2010. Jupiter was at peak luminosity on September 20th due to being in an opposition orbital positioning relative to the Earth and Sun, allowing us to see the planetary body with distinction. Jupiter has not been this bright and large since 1963.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkUJ-qG2Ctk

Jupiter continues to remain shimmering in the night sky for the next few weeks. If you wish to view it and assuming the weather permits, focus your attention firstly to the East-Southeast (ESE) to Southeast around dusk. It will then gradually continue to rise higher in the sky towards the South and will remain visible until dawn as it sets on the Western horizon - Jupiter appears as a very bright star, so it is difficult to miss it. Though a cooler and crisper airmass is gradually settling in, it will surely invite ideal evening and overnight skies later this weekend and into the work week. Jupiter will not be seen this large and bright until 2022.

Trav.

As the highly anticipated Fire on Ice event is soon to commence, I thought it would be appropriate to put together a weather forecast for those planning on attending tonight’s (December 4th) display. It should be firstly noted that a large area of low pressure that has recently moved Northward along the Atlantic seaboard is slowly retrograding Westward due to being blocked off by a strong area of high pressure situated over the Labrador Sea. Following behind this system in the long range is a typical Nor’easter, which is also expected to eventually follow the same westward track for the same reason. Consequently, with this persistent setup, today and the next several days will be generally breezy and will become rather gusty by the end of Monday through to most of Wednesday before that cold Arctic air from the West migrates eastward, bringing with it settled conditions, but cold daytime highs and particularly cold overnight lows by mid-end week. As this current meteorological setup plays some role on tonight’s weather, here is what to typically expect:

Temperature/Humidity

The area of low pressure is allowing for cold, dry air to circulate further South from the Northwest. However, saturation levels at mid levels are near 90%, so there will mostly be overcastted conditions for much of the day, keeping temperatures from dropping too rapidly during the evening-overnight period. As such, temperatures should hover around -2 to -1 C for the day and staying steady for the evening time frame. Estimated wind speeds will generate a windchill of -8 to -9 C. Humidity levels are low by end-Fall and Winter criteria.

Precipitation

Because of our close proximity to this system and due to the slight increase in atmospheric moisture associated with it, periods of on and off flurries to light snow is in the forecast for today. Total snow accumulations could be close to 10 cm by the end of Tuesday with the ongoing effect of the two systems. Chance of precipitation is 70%, both in the afternoon and evening periods.

Wind

With the positioning of the Nor’Easter, winds are likely out from the Northwest, though I am detecting a transition to predominantly westerlies by the evening hours. I understand that most spectators view the fireworks displays looking SW, so in this case, the smoke should be mostly heading to the left of these viewers. Wind speeds are light for most of the day, but I am anticipating them to become breezier anywhere between 22-25 km/h (occasional gusts of 33-35 km/h) this evening.

That’s the way the weather should operate. In general, breezy conditions, near-freezing temperatures and occasional periods of flurries to light snow are expected for today and this evening. For those of you who would like to see the presence of snow during a fireworks display, you may have your wish granted. Other than that, consistent Winter weather is making its debut this week.

Enjoy the display, for those of you in attendance, but dress accordingly for the weather.

Trav.

Thanks for that, Travis ! I was beginning to worry that we would have our first Fire on Ice without a proper forecast !

Tonight's show is named "Storm" ( "Tempête" ) ; how appropriate !

I'm heading to the Quays to interview Patrick Chandonnet, Orion's designer, as part of my enhanced Fire on Ice coverage. I have to contact each company beforehand to ask them the permission for the interview, so some displays may not have a complete coverage.

I'll write a new post in the Fire on Ice topic with the Patrick's answers, so you may want to check the topic just before heading to the event (for those who will be there tonight).

Hi STL,

No problem for supplying the weather information. And yes, the show's title certainly complements today's general weather conditions, even though this isn't a snowstorm in the strictest sense. What good timing!

I did neglect to mention something with respect to the winds. Although I am expecting smoke to be blowing mostly to the left of spectators (under the assumption that most are looking SW), the westerly winds, in this context, mean that the further East you are relative to the firing site, the higher your chances of receiving smoke. As such, try to position yourself as much to the West as possible, but at the same time not compromising your view, of course.

With the already fallen snow, there will be some blowing an drifting snow as well, so be on the lookout for that.

Enjoy the show tonight! I look forward to your review, as well as anyone else who decides to provide one.

Trav.

For those of you attending the second display of the Fire on Ice event on Saturday (December 11th), your weather forecast is calling for calm conditions and temperatures hovering again near the freezing mark. Winds are relatively light this time from, at this point, the East to ESE. There will, however, be some increasing cloudiness later in the day due to an advancing potent area of low pressure (a Colorado low) making its way Northeastward (more on this storm below).

I did previously mention that an Alberta Clipper will be passing through early this weekend. However, this system is showing signs of speeding up as compared to what was modeled in earlier projections. Consequently, this is more of a later Friday-early Saturday event, which will bring anywhere between 2-4 cm of snow within this time frame. The Alberta Clipper is responsible for pushing temperatures briefly back up to seasonal standards for Saturday and slowly through the day tomorrow (Friday).

I will provide an additional report later tomorrow to ascertain the conditions for Saturday.
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A powerful Winter storm is going to be our weather maker for the end of this weekend into the start of the work week. This system, known as a Colorado low, is rapidly intensifying because of a deepening trough in the polar jet, which is allowing for intense cold Arctic air from the West to fuel the surface low, while the low itself draws in warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to the South (this favors enhanced cyclogenesis, which is a term we use in meteorology to describe the intensification of a surface low due to an increase in its circulation).

I conservatively use the term "Winter storm" because of the uncertainty associated with the dominant precipitation type that will be present in Southern Quebec. By definition, a Winter storm consists of a combination of precipitation forms, including a mix of rain, snow, ice pellets and freezing rain. Conversely, a snowstorm is strictly snowfall. Because of the possible tracks that this system could take on in a few days' time, it is still a little difficult to determine how much snow will accompany it - if the system moves farther North, it will result in a Winter mix, which will prevent copious amounts of snow - if the warm front remains just to our South, then this is mostly a snow event. At this point in time, it is with a fair probability that Eastern Ontario (especially in the snowbelt areas) and Southern Quebec could largely witness snow, and if such is the case, then total accumulations could be as much as 25 cm. As such, I suspect Winter storm and snowfall watches/warnings will likely be issued within the next 36-48 hours in Ontario and Quebec as well as parts of the U.S Northeast.

Either way, a strong storm system is on the way and will make things rather messy. Because of the strong circulation and air pressure gradient associated with this system, following its departure will be a gradual return of cold Arctic air for Tuesday and the next few days. Winds also become particularly gusty (creating blowing and drifting snow) from the NW Monday night into Tuesday. The previous Nor'easter resulted in roughly 29 cm of snow here in Montreal due to its ongoing effect and because it migrated further West than was earlier predicted.

Edit: I will be able to finalize the dominant precipitation in our region after I've reviewed and analyzed the newer model runs.

Trav.

After reviewing the model runs from yesterday (Friday), here is your general weather conditions for tonight's display of the Fire on Ice event.

Temperature/Humidity

The temperature during the day are expected to be hovering close to the freezing mark and possibly attaining 1 C during the early afternoon for Saturday, courtesy of this current Alberta Clipper system. Values are expected to decline, however, by the evening-overnight period to roughly -4 to -5 C, and though the winds are light, they are enough to generate a slight windchill of -7 to -9 C during this time. Humidity levels are low, but are steadily rising for late Sunday into Monday.

Precipitation

You'll find yourselves waking up to a fresh blanket of snow Saturday morning due to the anticipated clipper affecting Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec tonight into the early morning hours of Saturday, producing as much as 4 cm of the white stuff. Snow or flurries are not expected during the display, but there will again be increasing cloudiness associated with the upcoming potent area of low pressure (a brief analysis on that to follow). In general, partly cloudy skies should be the overall sky conditions for Saturday evening.

Wind

Wind direction is a little tricky to forecast because of the upcoming weather system, but speeds are expected to generally be light in nature at 7-10 km/h. The general direction during the morning and afternoon is Westerly to WSW, but I am detecting a shift to the NW later in the afternoon to NNW to Northerlies by the early evening, meaning that the smoke would be moving off gently to the left of viewers (assuming your focus is to the SW). Breezy Easterlies to ESE will gradually take control during the overnight period with the system being in closer proximity.

That's the way the weather should generally behave for tomorrow night's display. In summary, light NNW to Northerly winds and chilly temperatures under partly cloudy skies. Be sure to dress accordingly.
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Referring to the above post concerning the upcoming Winter storm, the newer model outputs are illustrating that this system is pushing further North as it rides along the jet stream. This suggests more of a wintery mix, but the order of precipitation types is tricky. Given the track and speed of this system from Sunday into Monday, I believe that snow will firstly take place on early Sunday afternoon, which will transition over to ice pellets and then to a brief period of freezing rain (be cautious with that) during the evening-overnight period. Following the freezing rain could be a fair dose of a cold rain during Sunday overnight into Monday before transitioning to a rain-snow mix and then briefly back to straight snow Monday evening. Temperatures rapidly fall Monday overnight into the early minus teens and making way for a cold Tuesday to Thursday, which is due to Arctic airmass that I had alluded to previously. Total snowfall amounts are challenging to forecast because of the mixed precipitation, but depending on how long the periods of snow last, accumulations could be up to anywhere between 7-11 cm (most of the snow should fall Sunday afternoon and into the evening).

Nevertheless, be prepared for a sloppy Sunday-Monday!

Trav.

Saturday evening's weather for the third Fire on Ice display (December 18th) is looking to be mostly pleasant. Models are showing the intensifying area of low pressure to the North to be pushing farther Westward by Saturday evening, which should provide an increase in clear breaks at the time. Lingering flurries are possible earlier in the day, but temperatures are finally going to rebound to seasonal standards for the weekend and at least for the next several days because of a returning southerly flow. Winds, then, are likely blowing from the South at borderline light-moderate speeds - at this point, I am detecting speeds at 12-16 km/h. In this case, assuming you're looking SW, smoke would be blowing closely to your right, so the closer you are to the water (i.e. to the South or SE), the better the chances of avoiding incoming smoke. Temperatures are holding steady around -2 to -3 C for the evening period with a windchill factor of -6 to -8 C.

I'll keep an eye on the speed of the low through tomorrow before providing the final update, as this can influence wind speed and direction. If the low speeds up, then we'll have winds that are lighter in nature, but still Southerly - if it conversely slows, then this would favor breezier conditions, more cloud cover, and winds from the SSW to even SW.
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I'm vigilantly monitoring an intensifying area of low pressure (a nor'easter) developing in the central Atlantic, which could be a weather maker for us Monday night into Tuesday. Notice that we've been receiving ongoing periods of snow/flurries (relentless lake-effect snow in SW Ontario) for a good portion of this month so far. From a meteorological standpoint, the persistent instability is attributed to a powerful ridge of high pressure stationed in the North Atlantic, and this blocking mechanism is causing the polar jet to deeply meander around it, to the point where it is flowing East to West farther North. Consequently, areas of low pressure take longer to exit to the Northeast and instead retrograde westward. "If" this blocking high remains intact for the start of the work week, it could cause the upcoming nor'easter to follow a similar track, leading to a fair amount of snowfall in Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario. It is with a fair possibility that the unusually strong high pressure ridge is linked to the current negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, which would partly explain the weaker polar jet stream and therefore the unseasonably cold and relatively snowy weather patterns in North America.

Oh yes, congratulations to the Montreal Canadiens with their victory over the Boston Bruins tonight.

Trav.

Following up on the previous message and after carefully reviewing the model simulations, here is a synthesis of the weather for tonight's display.

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures are rising for the weekend and into the work week to seasonal to slightly above seasonal standards for a change. Today's (Saturday) temperatures are expected to be hovering between roughly -2 to -3 C during the afternoon and holding steady at -3 C for the early evening period. Given the light winds, the windchill factor is at -6 to -8 C. Moisture levels are low.

Precipitation

Saturation levels are high at mid levels of the atmosphere, and so mostly cloudy conditions will prevail with possible periods of flurries and light snow early in the day and into the afternoon hours. By evening, I am still anticipating an increase in clear breaks as the area of low pressure is speeding up somewhat. However, isolated pockets of flurries are still a possibility across Southern Quebec.

Wind

As the system has exhibited signs of speeding up, the winds are now expected to be more within the light spectrum ranging from 8-11 km/h from the SSW. As such, smoke should be blowing closely to your right if looking directly SW (and depending on your proximity to the firing site). However, with the tilt to the SSW, it is possible to intercept the smoke at times. As such, try to position yourself as close to the water as possible towards the SE/South or in the opposite direction to the NW or West relative to the site.

That's the way the weather should typically operate. To summarize, light SSW winds and milder temperatures under mostly cloudy skies. Isolated flurries are possible. As for the Nor'easter I spoke of in the previous post, it is still a possibility to consider over the medium term into the work week because it appears that the same upper level patterns are persisting up until that point. We'll still keep an eye on the storm, but if it does have an impact, it's just a matter of determining the dominant form of precipitation and the timing. More details on this storm in the above post.

Trav.

Thanks Travis ! Like I often say to my girlfriend regarding to your predictions about precipitation : if only Travis could be wrong for a change !

I won't be close to the water, as the building (skating chalet ?) will block part of my view (and my cameras'[img]http://montreal-fireworks.com/forum/img/smilies/wink.gif[/img]. I'll therefore live with the smoke and/or the burning remnants that may fall upon me. This is the job's risks and I assume them for the sake of my love of fireworks !

Unfortunately, B.E.M. declined to do an interview on the firing ramps (but they did accept a phone-based interview, though, even if I didn't have the time yesterday to do it), so I don't have any sneak preview for this week's display.

Will you come and see it this time around ?

STL

Hi STL,

I take it that you're hoping for some snow to fall tonight? If so, again flurries are a possibility, but it's mostly cloudy with some clear breaks. Periods of snow coming off from Lake Ontario, however, will continue on and off this afternoon and early evening. I honestly hope that my predictions for this Winter are totally incorrect!

You should largely be ok in terms of smoke, so long as you're not positioned North or NNE of the firing site.

As much as I'd like to attend the display tonight, especially considering that the weather mostly meets my standards (light winds, near-freezing temperatures, low moisture, etc.), I do have some errands to tend to this evening, unfortunately. If anything, though, I may consider the display around New Year's Eve, but again pending the weather.

I hope that you enjoy the display put on by B.E.M. tonight and, as always, I look forward to your report!

Trav.

I take it that you're hoping for some snow to fall tonight? If so, again flurries are a possibility, but it's mostly cloudy with some clear breaks. Periods of snow coming off from Lake Ontario, however, will continue on and off this afternoon and early evening. I honestly hope that my predictions for this Winter are totally incorrect!


No, what I'm saying is that you're always right on the money when you predict precipitations (and when you predict the weather, period). Therefore, I'd like that you be wrong one time or the other, as we had enough snow for a while

But, so far, the weather's been perfect for the Fire on Ice. I keep my fingers crossed that it'll stay the same until the end.

If anything, though, I may consider the display around New Year's Eve, but again pending the weather.

You're aware that it's at midnight, right ? If it's anything like last year, there will be tons of people on the Jacques-Cartier place, so arrive early if you both want to see everything and hear the music ! The people are further away than at Fire on Ice, but the maximum caliber remains 6", so it appears rather smaller from the back or so did I saw on various people's video of last year's show.

Therefore, I'd like that you be wrong one time or the other, as we had enough snow for a while

As it turns out, the winds, although in the anticipated range in terms of speed, were variable in direction through the day and interestingly never once even blew out from the South to SSW! Instead, you were faced with light winds from the opposite direction out from the NE around 8:00 p.m., and so the smoke was virtually blowing away from most spectators. All the better, right? Typically, very light winds tend to result in variable directions at a localized scale, making them tricky to forecast with a high degree of precision at specific timeframes, and temporally in general. Everything else, however, seemed to have more and less taken place as forecasted.

You're aware that it's at midnight, right ?

Yes. If there will again be tons of people (which is a fair likelihood), I will be sure to leave extra time to get there to see the display and of course to secure a good vantage point. Thanks for the notification!

Thank you once again for providing your thoughts on the display in the Fire on Ice thread. I'm delighted to know that you, to some extent, enjoyed B.E.M's display last night. Also, I wish you the very best of luck on your final exam this morning.
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***I had wanted to briefly bring everyone's attention to the upcoming total lunar eclipse that will be taking place over the course of the overnight period tonight on December 21st, 2010 (the early morning hours). The moon will firstly begin to pass into the Earth's outer shadow creating a partial eclipse (the penumbra) starting after midnight tonight at roughly 12:30 a.m. EST. Approximately an hour later around 1:30 a.m, it will begin to enter the umbral phase and reach maximum totality by 3:13-3:17 a.m. As the moon travels through the umbral shadow (Earth's inner shadow), you will notice that its color will vary from a light orange as it enters the umbral to progressively a copper-like hue by the time it attains maximum totality. As such, if you are unable to catch most of the celestial spectacle, try to focus on getting a glimpse of the moon at its greatest eclipse during the umbra shadow at 3:13-3:17 a.m. From start to finish, this eclipse is expected to endure for nearly six hours, but the umbra will last for roughly three and a half hours (commencing again close to 1:30 a.m.) with the moon gradually interchanging colors throughout. The total eclipse will be visible for nearly one and a quarter hours, starting from 2:40 a.m - incidentally, there is a phase shift about every hour elapsed. Notice that this eclipse is taking place on the Winter solstice, which is indeed a rarity - the last time this occurred was nearly four centuries ago in 1638. The next time a total lunar eclipse is expected to take place in conjunction with the Winter solstice is in 2094.

Weather, of course, determines your viewing conditions for this glamorous celestial display. The Nor'easter that I had been tracking previously will likely be having an influence on our skies for the later overnight period tonight (Monday) due to increasing cloudiness. Consequently, the latter part of the eclipse may be marred by the increasing mid-level clouds at the time. Luckily, however, there is a fair chance that the total/greatest eclipse phases may still be visible before excessive cloud cover dominates the night sky.

With respect to the weather system itself, due to the high pressure ridge starting to break down over the North Atlantic, I don't anticipate that it will retrograde too far West to be considered a significant snowstorm here in Montreal. The westard track still will, however, be enough that we could pick up some decent snowfall amounts - at this point, it could be a maximum of 10-12 cm (locally up to 15 cm, especially the farther East and NE you travel) spanning from early Tuesday (near sunrise) to early Wednesday. Winds will also pick up from the NW and will occasionally be gusty at as much as 45-50 km/h through Tuesday.

If the system continues its current projected track, then it would surely provide appropriate conditions to welcome the first official day of Winter. The Winter solstice of 2010 is due to arrive at 6:38 p.m. EST on December 21st.

Trav.

I'm sure that many of you found yourselves waking up to a picturesque scenery that Mother Nature had beautifully crafted this morning:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3600.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3597.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3598.jpg

This phenomenon closely resembles ice accumulations left behind by a freezing rain/freezing drizzle event. However, the glistening white was the result of freezing fog that had taken place last night into early this morning (December 20th). As found in typical low to mid level clouds, the suspended droplets within the fog remain in liquid phase because they are well insulated and have individual nuclei surfaces on which they cling, preventing rapid freezing. Contrary to popular belief, the droplets are actually supercooled (not frozen) when exposed to ambient temperatures that are below freezing to as cold as -40 C. With this in mind, the droplets will only freeze when in contact with a surface that is at or below freezing, forming a gentle glaze on objects like trees or roofs. There isn't any significant net accumulation of ice that takes place on the coated surfaces because the rate of sublimation roughly equals that of freezing. Once temperatures drop below the -40 C threshold, the supercooled droplets solidify into ice crystals, much in the same manner as in cirrus clouds or within the anvil of a thunderstorm. Assuming, then, that there is fog present over a given area, it will be in the form of "ice fog" - this is a rather scarce phenomenon, but is common at higher latitudes and polar regions as well.

Other than that, I hope that many of you will be able to get a glimpse of the lunar eclipse tonight, especially when the moon is half way into the umbral and reaches maximum totality around quarter past 3 a.m. The transition from the orange to red hues during the moon's passage in Earth's inner shadow (the umbra) is the result of the sun's longwave radiation being refracted by aerosols in Earth's atmosphere and then casted onto the moon's surface - the shorter wavelengths of the visible spectrum are not displayed because they are scattered more efficiently by the aerosols. I'm just hoping that the clouds will be forgiving for the umbral phase, or at the very least during the greatest eclipse. For more details of the eclipse, please refer to the message above.

Edit: It seems that skies are remaining mostly overcastted, but I am expecting to see some brief clear breaks this evening and early overnight, hopefully in time for the lunar eclipse. If the weather continues to be uncooperative, I'll post a video of the eclipse here as an additional edit later tomorrow. Still, nothing beats seeing it live in person!

Edit2: As the skies are predominantly overcast (owing to that Nor'easter), here is a live webcast of the lunar eclipse:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/21/lunar-eclipse-2010-live-s_n_7 99517.html

Trav.

The weather forecast for Christmas evening (and the 4th Fire on Ice display) is calling for mostly tranquil conditions under chilly temperatures, low humidity, and some cloudy periods.

A strong anticyclone (high pressure area) is developing just South of Hudson bay, and this will be providing us with mostly fair conditions and below seasonal temperatures over the course of the next several days. At the same time, there is a weak disturbance that is looking to stay mainly South of the border for Christmas evening into Boxing day, but it could spread some cloudy periods and scattered light flurries during this time period. With the atmospheric setup, winds are expected to be light in nature at 7-10 km/h out from the NW to NNW, so smoke would be blowing gently off to your left during the display (again, assuming you're looking towards the SW). Temperatures could be as chilly as -8 C with a windchill factor of -12 to -13 C.

The models are also detecting another area of low pressure that will begin to rapidly intensify in the South Atlantic, gradually becoming the next Nor'easter for the holiday week in the maritimes. I don't think this system will have as much of an impact on southern Quebec as the previous one did because the jet stream is no longer configured in the way it was over the last week - that strong North Atlantic high pressure ridge has broken down.

I'll provide a final update on Christmas Eve to finalize everything.

Happy holidays everyone,

Trav.