Hi guys,

As the fireworks displays for the "Feux Sur Glace" event are set to begin, I thought it would be both helpful and interesting to provide some brief information on what you can expect in terms of weather for each display, in addition to providing a little Winter outlook summary.

First, I know many of you are hoping to see some snow to go along with these displays in order to enhance the festive Christmas-holiday feeling. The weather should be alright for this evening (the 6th), but be sure to dress warmly as the 10-15 km/h Southerly winds present could make things uncomfortable if you're out for extended periods of time - in this case, spectators may sometimes face the wind against them when viewing the display given the predominant Southerly direction. Temperatures will likely hover between -4 to -6 Celsius around the time of presentation (windchills arriving closer to -9 to -12 C depending on wind velocity). With respect to snow, if anything, it'll likely be in the form of scattered/isolated flurries or intermittent periods of light snow, at most, associated with the increasing cloudiness. In short, yes, there's a slight chance to see some light snow/flurries during the display. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy. I'm not really anticipating any kind of steadier snowfall until later tonight and persisting through Sunday (~5 cm).

I'm also watching another larger and more tenacious system developing and pushing Northeastward from the Gulf in time for late Monday night into Tuesday, but the models are not all in agreement as to whether this will indeed transform into a significant snowfall event. We'll see how that progresses, but forecasts are predicting at least a decent amount of snowfall from it (perhaps close to 10 cm as preliminary estimates).

Regarding the outlook for this Fall/Winter, unlike last year's strong La Nina conditions persisting up till this past March, the sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are, and have been since mid-Summer, in a steady neutral state. This pattern tends to exhibit above normal trends in both temperature and precipitation for most of Eastern Canada during most of the Winter, while the opposite holds true for the West - this is also what most seasonal outlook forecasts are suggesting. So far, it has been pretty much just that. This could suggest a snowy season, though I sincerely doubt to the same degree as the previous unique Winter of 07-08. Of course, the amount of snow we get (more specifically, the amount of snow arriving at the surface and accumulating) ultimately depends on temperature variability with height. So far, we've done a good job avoiding the snow compared to adjacent locations thanks to regional warmer temps, but we have, nevertheless, still acquired quite a bit of precip during the months of October and November, which is consistent in being above normal - temperatures have also followed this trend, on average. In any case, I'm very much curious to see how these predictions will turn out over the course of the Winter.

On a side note, predicting Fall/Winter weather is a lot easier than forecasting that of Spring/Summer, although predicting exact accumulations of snow or what type of precip will emerge when near-surface temperatures fluctuate close to freezing, for example, remains to be quite the challenge.

Anyhow, once more, for those of you planning to attend, make sure to dress warmly this evening, merely because of those winds and their corresponding direction.

Oh yes, just for the heck of it, 104 days until Spring.

Trav.

Hey Travis!

Thank you for being our exclusive weatherman! I will dress accordingly this evening and I am praying for snow.....lots of big snowflakes to cover the ground and fill the sky, as the fireworks will light up the Old Port of Montreal! I hope you will have time to attend at least one of the four displays.....as they are so different from the Summer displays, but equally fun!

Take care, my friend!

Pierre

Hi Pierre,

It's my pleasure to provide the weather updates and outline the possibilities in what you can expect. The scenario you proposed certainly makes for a picturesque scenery with the large snowflakes. I wasn't anticipating much in the way of snow during the display last night, but it was, as expected, snowing quite steadily throughout this afternoon, so I'm certain that many, especially you, are enamored seeing the white stuff remaining on the ground for the first time.

*And a little update regarding that system I briefly touched on earlier yesterday; as anticipated, the Texas low, as it is known, is becoming increasingly organized and now moving Northeastward towards Eastern Canada. As it does, it will eventually merge with an Alberta Clipper (a disturbance that commonly forms off the Rocky Mountains and travels fairly quickly Westward across the country). A strong Arctic high situated in the NW territories will enhance the development of this system by supplying it with cold air, while the system will possess copious amounts of moisture acquired from the Gulf of Mexico. In any case, because of the system's current track, Southern Quebec could pick up about as much as 15 cm of snow (this may prompt a snowfall warning) by the end of Wednesday (the 9th), though it's possible to cross that estimate locally. Again due to movement, places North and West of Montreal into Eastern Ontario's snowbelt region will see the most snow (an upwards of potentially 30 cm, which is about a foot).

Anyhow, that's how this system should function for our region, at least. Before that, however, very cold Arctic air will plague much of Eastern Canada tonight into tomorrow with frigid conditions, enough to make temperatures dip to as low as -17 to -20 C tonight into the morning - note the daytime high tomorrow (the 8th) - typical January weather. The winds tonight into the morning, which are associated with a potent Nor'easter placed in Newfoundland, will be enough to generate dangerous windchills of close to -30 C. Yikes! Once the system moves in tomorrow night, temperatures will gradually warm up closer to freezing. Temperatures will then continue to warm well above freezing come Wednesday, promoting a transition to rain from snow. However, this warming will be relatively short-lived as the cold front nears and transforms the rain over to snow before the system departs later Wednesday. Once the system departs, cold Arctic air will soon again dominate for a short time. This is how Winter weather patterns commonly behave - like a roller coaster. Again, dress appropriately to protect yourselves against these frigid conditions if you have to head out there. Today's snow will come to a halt later this evening, but it is making driving pretty slick out there, even though the layer of snow is thin.

And yes, Pierre, I do plan on seeing at least one of the last couple of displays with Enkil - either the 20th or 27th, or maybe both! I just hope the weather won't be as cold as it will be tomorrow or tonight!

Take care, Pierre, and I hope you and everyone who saw the display last night enjoyed it to the fullest! Slight possibility of snow for the next display, but no promises!

EDIT: Current temperature as of 1:00 a.m. is recorded at -18 C. Brisk Westerlies are making it feel like -29 to -31 C. OMG

EDIT 2: The system is actually persisting through to Thursday, and once the rain changes to snow come later Wednesday, that's probably when we'll see the largest accumulations (again an upwards of 15 cm is possible by the time all is said and done by Thursday's end). Temperatures will rise high enough Tuesday to cause periodic mixing, thereby hindering large amounts of snow to accumulate

Trav.

Good evening,

I just wanted to provide a little briefing about the weather for this Saturday's display. Saturday's conditions are expected to be quite frigid as high pressure moves into Eastern Canada following the upcoming snowfall we're going to get, which is associated with a merged Alberta Clipper. As a result, conditions could be uncomfortable due to colder temperatures if out for extended periods. These conditions will improve, however, by later Sunday as another system advances - this one is not expected to deliver snow (mostly rain come Monday) as a strong Southerly flow moves in. Winds should be relatively light according to the models for Saturday evening, though there's some indication of occasional breezes reaching close to 20 km/h. With the predominantly light Westerly winds of 10-15 km/h, this is enough to generate a windchill of -17 to -20 Celsius. Temperatures will hover close to -13 C during that evening and I'm not anticipating any snow or flurries whatsoever at that time - it's likely mostly clear with a few clouds here and there, which doesn't really help to moderate temperatures.

With respect to this upcoming system, because of the moisture content associated with this mini-snowstorm and due to near- surface temperatures being well below zero, precipitation most assuredly is snow. Winds will become gusty through tomorrow in the form of Westerlies, so blowing and drifting snow is an issue. Close to 15 cm is possible. Once this storm clears, cold Arctic air will once again funnel in with temperatures reaching close to the minus teens tomorrow night (Friday) into Saturday, making things rather frosty.

As for the previous storm system, this ended up being a significant snowfall enough to make it Montreal's first real Winter storm. Thousands of customers were without power in and around the region, largely because of the extensive freezing rain accretions. The prime reason behind the additional snowfall is merely because temperatures never warmed up to above freezing as a result of the system speeding up. Consequently, the warming occurred overnight and thus the potential of this warming was suppressed because of the timing. Moreover, the freezing rain that fell overnight lasted for extended periods and never transitioned over to rain, again because the warming was not sufficient. In the end, we picked up about 23 cm of snow and 5 hours worth of freezing rain. Ottawa and Quebec City picked up about 30 cm and 38 cm respectively, which is not surprising.

Of course, as I had stated in my second edit in my previous post, the models were detecting that an upwards of 15 cm could fall by the time the storm had concluded. To my surprise, Environment Canada never issued a snowfall warning for the region in advance as I thought they would, which I didn't really understand at all. However, I did mention that the system track would allow us to avoid large amounts of snow (30 cm+) compared to heavier impacted regions further North, West, and NE, and although we did pick up quite a bit of snow, it still was much lower compared to other neighbouring cities that were expected to receive larger quantities to begin with.

In any case, once again, you're really going to have to bundle up for this Saturday's display if you plan on attending. Extra layered clothing is always a big help. I'm somewhat envious at the moment knowing that the Maritimes will be seeing temperatures warmer than 10 C in many places for the next couple of days...

Hope the display, Winter Solstice, by Ampleman is an excellent one!

Trav.

Good evening,

Just to provide some insight as to what we can expect in terms of weather for this Saturday's display (so happens to fall on the last day of Autumn), well, once this current system slips us by, cold air will descend over Ontario and Quebec before the next Winter storm makes its arrival (a little more on that in a bit). In any case, a similar temperature range should be encountered as what was witnessed last Saturday (the 13th). However, things would be increasingly uncomfortable mainly due to greater windspeeds (closer to 20 km/h), while coming out from the North and Northeast (keep in mind that last week's winds were out from the South/Southwest and were relatively tranquil to almost non-existent in nature). Temperatures should hover anywhere around -10 to -13 C, along with a windchill of -16 to -20 (I calculated this under the assumption of 15-20 km/h speeds coupled with the temperature range). I suspect, however, that temperatures could, despite what the models and forecasts are currently saying, be slightly warmer at the time because of the system coming in, and therefore an abundance of cloud cover could moderate the temperature to some extent. Either way, though, you probably wouldn't feel the difference! Because of the upcoming system, there's the possibility of seeing some isolated light snow or flurries during the evening - certainly a better chance than last week, but overall sky conditions will be overcasted. You don't need me to tell you to bundle up! It would be tough for me to get out there with such cold temperatures - doesn't really give much encouragement! I can barely tolerate temperatures below +10 C, but -12 C with uncomfortable winds....I complain a lot in Fall/Winter, forgive me! Anybody heading to Barbados after the holidays?

As for the Winter storm (I should formally say "snowstorm" as this is strictly snowfall), which I've been watching for about a week now, models are suggesting as much as 25 cm could fall by mid-day Monday (starting roughly Sunday morning given current speed track), although the more conservative estimates (majority) target a range of 15-20 cm. Winds will pick up as well, so again blowing and drifting snow....just call it a day. lol Models still having a hard time projecting the relative speed of the system, though. Quite appropriate for the 1st day of Winter (which again arrives 7:43 a.m. EST, Sunday morning).

Anyhow, I don't think further synopsis is required for that storm, but we could have certainly seen a double snowfall - we are going to miss this upcoming system expected to impact Southern Ontario with as much as 20 cm of snow by today's end (Friday). Because of strong high pressure in Northern Quebec, the system is pushed further South, and so we, in Montreal, will be grazed by the Northern periphery of the storm and thus pick up no more than 4-5 cm. A fairly zonal jet stream pattern should help the system propagate quickly Eastward anyway. With the new snow coming Sunday, this ended up being a double-whammy for Southern Ontario!

Speaking of snow, so far we've received about 49 cm of the white stuff for this month. Times like this last year, about 113 cm fell by the end of the month, on top of the some 30 cm that fell in November! Still, this is already quite a snowy December, and frigid, too! It has been snowing in many parts of North America, even in Las Vegas (picked up close to 10 cm there already!) Mississippi and Alabama picked up quite a bit as well just recently. Elsewhere, Spain picked up plenty of snow recently, too. Western Canada and the West/Central U.S have been plagued with nasty bitterly cold weather. How cold? Well, Regina, for instance, only saw a daytime high of -27 C yesterday! Closer to home, expect very cold weather for the next ~36 hours, especially combined with those persistently gusty Northeasterlies.

Have my eye on another potential snowstorm developing later in the week...snowy Christmas Day/Christmas Eve? We'll find out shortly!

If you plan on attending, I hope you enjoy FAE's display tomorrow evening!

Trav.

Your weather report is much appreciated, as always Trav.

I plan to make it out for FAE's display tomorrow night (my second and probably last of the Feux Sur Glace 2008). Apart from decent weather and the off-chance of a light snowfall during the display I mainly want to see it because of their strong performance last year - I expect FAE to give us another delightful display.

And Trav, on the subject of your distaste for our winters, I won't be going to Barbados but will be going to Florida after Christmas. I'll be in Tampa for New Year's and will try to bring back some video of the fireworks that are sure to abound on December 31st.

Tyler

To provide a brief weather update, everything still seems to be falling into play and much hasn't changed with the forecast in what I mentioned in my previous post. However, temperatures this evening (the 20th) are expected to be somewhat colder than initially expected at about -15 to -17 C. This is in part because the clouds associated with the upcoming snowfall/snowstorm for Sunday will not be as extensive yet this evening, consequently due to the system slowing down. With now just but a few cloudy periods, it will permit temperatures to stay steady through the day until the clouds finally move in overnight tonight. Fortunately, however, also because of this slowing, winds will be predominantly sustained as relative light (as much as 7-11 km/h, still from the NE), producing a windchill of -20 to -21 C (still detecting occasional breezes of closer to 15-20 km/h making it feel like -25 to -28 C - bare that in mind). However, this also does diminish the chances of seeing isolated flurries or light snow.

And about the snowstorm, as I had expected, EC has just recently appropriately issued a snowfall warning for Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec for Sunday's storm. Take care out there! 15 cm is likely, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of going over 20 cm by early Monday - quite a bit of moisture is being detected.

TRae,

It was no problem in providing the information, my friend. Tampa, eh? Nice choice for destination. I particularly like the city as it is known as the "lightning capital" in the United States, but moreso because it is so warm and pleasant, even though Florida still can very well see snow or frost during the Winter months. However, you wouldn't have to worry too much about that as it looks like you're heading into gorgeous weather with highs close to the mid 20s (in Celsius, of course) with a few cloudy periods to variable cloudiness accompanied with the isolated risk of a thunderstorm.

Enjoy the show tonight! I hope FAE will be as good as last year, and perhaps better! And I hope you get the opportunity to capture the New Year's fireworks celebrations possibly taking place there and later share the footage with us whenever you get the chance.

Welcome to the last day of Fall, guys. Old Man Winter arrives tomorrow morning, and appropriately greeting Eastern Canada with a storm.

Trav.

Good evening,

Checking the conditions for the final display of the Fire on Ice event, things are going to be radically different as compared to the previous three performances. A low pressure system coming in from the SW from Ontario and the US will usher in a strong Southwesterly flow as it advances towards our location, and thus temperatures will rise sharply with such a strong influx of warm moist air circulating from the Gulf. The daytime high for Saturday will therefore attain a value of 5-7 Celsius, though I suspect that this range will hold steady during the evening hours as well. Note that, in addition to the increasing cloudiness, temperatures are starting to warm up tomorrow (Friday) evening as opposed to cooling down. Due to these conditions, and because of us being behind the warm front at the time, intermittent light rains to times of mixed precip., are expected to persist through the day Saturday along with mostly cloudy weather. I ran some precipitation ensemble forecast models and the cumulative 12-hour period for rainfall doesn't seem to exceed the 5-10 mm threshold, although this is likely under the assumption of mixed precip occasionally stepping in. If all rainfall, total accumulations during a 12-hour interval could reach 15-20 mm. In any case, winds will be likely coming out from the South (mild SE motion) maintaining speeds of about 6-10 knots, or roughly 12 to 19 km/h - wind speeds are variable across the island Saturday, but looking at a large scale synopsis, these are the estimated speeds near the Old Port. Moisture levels are certainly going to be elevated, but smoke accumulations shouldn't be too much of a problem with the given wind speeds accompanied by a 30-40% relative humidity rate at sea level. Just try to avoid sections North (or facing South) of the firing site so as to not having to deal with smoke flying into you.

So, to sum it up, you are welcome to bring an umbrella, although this is not practical as we are still forced to be armed with our Winter jackets anyway, and so our hoods, or whatever head covering you may have in your possession, should serve as the equivalent purpose. Temperatures are quite mild, though please note that precip. may start off as a Wintry mix with wet snow or even freezing rain in the morning hours before it transitions over to light rainfall and the occasional rain/wet snow mix. Rain or rain/snow mix will continue to persist on and off into the evening and overnight hours before finally departing mid-Sunday.

Hope everyone has had a very merry Christmas and will continue to enjoy the holidays as well as the upcoming New Year's event (2009).

I'll see you guys back here in about 6 months, but I'll be sure to post and share any significant weather event taking place in our good city (or major space events) between now and then if and when they do arise.

I guess to conclude, as I had forgotten to mention before, I'll just say that for the first time since 1971, all of Canada is covered in some quantity of snow, thereby qualifying the entire country as having a white Christmas (2 cm+)! December ending off pretty nicely with temperatures not deviating too far from the monthly temperature mean. January is expected to start off in a similar fashion, which does help a lot. Finally, we've so far gained about 1 minute of daylight since December 21st (yay ) - that rate will speed up substantially by January and onwards, so hang in there.

Happy holidays,

Trav.

Hey guys,

I just wanted to bring your attention to the full moon phase tonight, which is expected to be the largest appearance of this celestial body for 2009. The moon typically orbits around the Earth in a period of about 29 and 1/2 days, but now tonight it will be at its closest position to the Earth in its orbit (the orbit is not perfectly circular), called perigee, and will consequently appear to be larger and at least 30% more brighter in the sky than any other time this year. To view it, you will have to focus your attention towards the Eastern skies tonight at dusk. The spectacle will last until the moon begins to travels higher in the sky. As the moon is relatively close to the Earth, tides will naturally become higher than usual as well in the oceans to increased gravitational influence. These unique oceanic tides are referred to as the "Perigean tides" as they occur during the "perigee" moon phase.

As for the weather, we are expected to see some snow tonight overnight, but I don't anticipate abundant cloud cover until mid to late evening. There will, however, be some cloudy periods, so patches of cloud may become bothersome if they are concentrated. Still, aside from the near polar weather, sky conditions aren't all that bad overall, so we should get some alright views in general. If you're going out to see it, though, be sure to dress warmly.

Trav.